Andy Burnham is coming back to Westminster. Honestly, nobody is surprised. The King in the North has spent years building a power base in Greater Manchester, and the sudden resignation of Josh Simons in Makerfield has cleared the path. This isn't just about a local seat in Wigan. It's a calculated chess move. If you've been watching the polls, you know the Labour Party under Keir Starmer is currently taking a beating. Reform UK is surging, and the local election results in Wigan earlier this month were nothing short of a bloodbath for Labour.
Makerfield is a traditional red bastion. It has been Labour since it was created in 1983. But the 2024 general election saw Reform UK jump to nearly 32% of the vote. In the local council elections just last week, Reform wiped the floor with Labour in Wigan, taking 24 out of 25 seats. The mood on the ground isn't just "unhappy"—it's volatile.
The Burnham Factor in a Bitter Town
Burnham isn't just another suit from London. He grew up around here. He knows how to speak "Wigan" in a way that Josh Simons, a former think-tank director, probably didn't. People here feel let down by national politics. They see a cost-of-living crisis that won't quit and a government that feels increasingly out of touch. Burnham’s strategy is simple: lean into his local roots and his record as Mayor.
But can he actually win? On paper, yes. He has high name recognition and a personal brand that often transcends party lines. However, he's walking into a storm. Reform UK isn't a protest vote anymore; in Makerfield, it's becoming the new default for the working class. If Burnham wins, it’ll be because of his "Andy" brand, not the Labour rose on his lapel.
Why Josh Simons really stepped down
Let’s be real about the optics. Simons claimed he was putting the country first by stepping aside. In the brutal world of political theater, that’s code for "the leadership needs Burnham in Parliament to steady a sinking ship—or to keep him where they can see him."
Starmer is under immense pressure. There’s talk of a leadership challenge. By letting Burnham run for Makerfield, Starmer is either inviting his biggest rival into the tent or setting him up to fail. If Burnham loses or barely scrapes by in a "safe" seat, his momentum dies. If he wins big, he becomes the Prime Minister in waiting.
The Reform Surge is Real
You can't ignore the numbers from the 2024 general election and the recent locals.
- Labour (2024): 18,202 votes (45.2%)
- Reform UK (2024): 12,803 votes (31.8%)
- Recent Locals: Reform won 50% of the vote across the Makerfield wards.
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon is already circling. He doesn't need to win the seat to cause a crisis; he just needs to make it close. If Burnham’s majority shrinks to a few hundred votes, the narrative changes from "Burnham Returns" to "Labour is Dying in the North."
What Makerfield Voters Actually Care About
The people in Ashton-in-Makerfield, Hindley, and Abram aren't sitting around talking about Westminster procedural rules. They care about the fact that the town centers are struggling and the buses—despite Burnham’s "Bee Network" reforms—still don't go everywhere they need to.
There’s a deep-seated feeling that the North gets the scraps while London gets the feast. Burnham has played this card perfectly for years. He’s the guy who fought the government during lockdown. He’s the guy who took control of the buses. But now, he has to prove that going back to being an MP won't just make him another voice lost in the Commons.
Is This the End for Keir Starmer
If Burnham takes Makerfield, the countdown begins. Under Labour rules, 20% of MPs need to back a candidate to trigger a leadership vote. That’s 81 MPs. With the party tanking in the polls and losing its heartlands to Reform and the Greens, those 81 signatures might not be hard to find.
Burnham has already been blocked once this year from running in Gorton and Denton. The fact he's been greenlit for Makerfield suggests Starmer’s grip on the National Executive Committee (NEC) is slipping. Or perhaps, Starmer is betting that the reality of being a backbench MP will dim Burnham’s star. It’s a massive gamble.
What happens next
If you're living in Makerfield, expect a circus. Every major news outlet will be parked in Wigan for the next few weeks. You'll see Burnham in a high-vis jacket at least five times. You'll see Reform UK leaders claiming they are the "real" voice of the working man.
If you want to understand where the country is headed, don't look at London. Look at the result of this by-election. If Burnham can’t hold Makerfield convincingly, nobody in the Labour Party is safe.
Watch the turnout numbers closely. In 2024, it was only 52.5%. If the voters stay home, Reform wins by default. If Burnham can energize the "quiet" Labour voters who stayed home last time, he might just save his party—and his own path to Number 10.
