Colombia’s democracy is basically under siege. If you thought the 2016 peace deal ended the era of candidates being gunned down on the streets, the current campaign trail is a brutal reality check. Just today, as voters head to the polls for the March 8 congressional elections, the country’s on edge. This isn't just about people disagreeing on policy. It's about bullets, kidnappings, and armed groups deciding who gets to run in the first place.
Security is the only thing on anyone's mind right now. The killing of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay in August 2025 shattered the illusion that Bogota was safe. It was the first time a presidential candidate was assassinated in three decades. That event changed everything. It forced candidates to trade town hall rallies for bulletproof vests and armored caravans. If you're wondering why this keeps happening despite the "Total Peace" efforts, it's because the state hasn't filled the vacuum left by the old FARC. For a more detailed analysis into this area, we suggest: this related article.
The Geography of Fear
Violence isn't hitting everyone the same way. If you live in Bogota or Medellin, you might just see extra police. But in the rural "periphery," it's a different world. Armed groups like the ELN and FARC dissidents (the EMC) aren't just fighting the government; they're running local governments. They veto candidates they don't like. They tell voters who to pick.
The Misión de Observación Electoral (MOE) recently flagged 185 municipalities as being at high risk for violence. That’s nearly 20% of the country. In 94 of those spots, the risk is "extreme." We’re talking about places in Cauca, Norte de Santander, and Antioquia where the rule of law is a suggestion at best. For additional details on this issue, detailed reporting is available at NBC News.
Armed groups use a simple playbook. First, they threaten. Then, they kidnap. Finally, they kill. Senator Aida Quilcue was snatched earlier this year in Cauca. Luckily, she was released, but two bodyguards for Senator Jairo Castellanos weren't so lucky—they were killed when his caravan was shot up by the ELN. The ELN claimed it was a "mistake" because the car didn't stop at a roadblock. That's the level of chaos we're dealing with.
Why Total Peace feels like Total Chaos
President Gustavo Petro came in promising to negotiate with everyone. He called it "Paz Total." But for many, it's felt like giving a green light to criminals. While the government talks, the groups expand. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights recently warned that Colombia is "reverting" to the levels of violence seen before the peace process.
- Forced Displacement: Up 85% since 2024.
- Child Recruitment: Over 600 cases documented in a year, and those are just the ones we know about.
- Political Homicides: 18 killings and 126 attacks or threats against leaders in the last year alone.
The ELN declared a "unilateral ceasefire" for today's vote. They say they want people to vote "in liberty." Don't buy it. These groups use ceasefires to regroup, not to repent. They still control the gold mines, the coca fields, and the roads. If a candidate talks about ending illegal mining or drug trafficking, they become a target. Simple as that.
Trust in the System is Cratering
It’s not just the violence outside the polling stations. It’s the rhetoric coming from the top. Petro himself has been casting doubt on the election software. He’s claiming fraud before the first ballot is even counted. When a president says the system is rigged, it gives a lot of cover to those who want to use violence to disrupt it.
Voters are exhausted. A recent AtlasIntel survey showed that insecurity and crime are the top concerns, beating out even the messy healthcare system. People want to feel safe walking to a shop, let alone a voting booth.
What You Can Do if You're Following the Election
If you’re watching this from the outside or living through it, pay attention to the turnout in rural areas. That’s the real metric. If turnout in places like Catatumbo or the Pacific coast drops, it means the gunmen won.
- Watch the MOE Reports: They are the most reliable source for real-time alerts on voting irregularities.
- Follow Local Journalists: Reporters in the departments of Cauca and Arauca are the ones seeing the actual intimidation, not the pundits in Bogota.
- Ignore the Hype: Both the government and the opposition will claim fraud if they lose. Look for the European Union observer reports for a neutral take.
The reality is that Colombia's 2026 elections aren't just a choice between left and right. They're a test of whether the state can actually protect its own people while they exercise their most basic right. Right now, the gunmen are the ones holding the pen.
Check the official Registraduría website for live results as they come in tonight to see how these high-risk zones actually voted.
